Did you know that Antarctica isn’t entirely covered by glaciers and ice sheets? Along its coastlines, there are ice-free areas where permafrost is often present (soil that remains below 0 °C for two or more consecutive years). This frozen ground is typically overlain by an “active layer”, a surface layer that freezes and thaws seasonally and is highly sensitive to changes in air temperature. The stability of both the permafrost and the active layer is essential for maintaining the delicate ecosystems in these regions.
However, since 1950, the Antarctic Peninsula has experienced a steady increase in air temperatures, which is already having a noticeable impact on permafrost dynamics.
In a new study led by a Portuguese researcher, scientists modelled the evolution of permafrost temperature and active layer thickness on King George Island, located in the Antarctic Peninsula. The aim was to understand how these variables have changed over time and to develop a methodology that could later be applied to other ice-free regions of the peninsula.
To achieve this, the team used the CryoGrid Community Model, fed with borehole data from the King Sejong Station (which provides ground temperature records at various depths) and ERA5 climate reanalysis data.
The results are clear: since 1950, permafrost temperatures have increased by about 2 °C, and the active layer has thickened from 1.6 to 3.5 metres. And the most concerning part? This warming has accelerated significantly since 2016.
But why is this important? Because permafrost degradation in Antarctica affects hydrological dynamics, controls the flow of sediments and contaminants, causes ground instability, and influences vegetation development — all of which have direct impacts on terrestrial ecosystems and biodiversity.
This study represents an important step toward a better understanding of how climate change is affecting Antarctica, and it helps us anticipate what might happen in the future to the planet’s frozen ground.
Source: Baptista, J. P., Vieira, G. B. G. T., Lee, H., Correia, A. M. D. C. S., & Westermann, S. (2025). Modelling the evolution of permafrost temperatures and active layer thickness in King George Island, Antarctica, since 1950. Frozen ground/Antarctic. https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-150
Author: Diana Martins
